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August, 2010

Emotion— The most important betting edge to know about in football wagering isn't statistics or numbers.  The most important edge is emotion.  Find the team that desires to win more than their opponent and they'll cover a high percentage of those events.  This is true in all sports.  But it is even more significant in a physical game like NCAA and NFL Football.  Certain Coaches are much better than others in getting their teams ready for games by providing the impetus for emotion.  Such Coaches as Frank Beamer, Jim Tressel, Paul Johnson, Tom O'Brien, Urban Meyer, and Bill Belichick among others have all shown their worth in this area over the years. 

Sandwich Games— Be careful of ‘sandwich' games. That is the game for a team that's in between two other more important games.  The NFL split into different Divisions recently, with fewer teams in each Division.  Since then we have both the AFC and NFC broken down into four Divisions consisting of four teams each.  They are called the East, North, South and West.  So now Division games are of even greater significance than in the past with fewer teams in each Division.  When it comes to determining the Playoff picture, these games are the most important to each competing team. 

If Tennessee for example, early in the season, plays Indianapolis this week and Jacksonville in two weeks, you know they're going to be focused on those two inter-Divisional games.  But if the in-between game is against say San Francisco, a lesser out of Conference team, be careful!  Tennessee will have most likely played a tough game the week before, and have an important tough game the following week.  Starters may be pulled early against San Francisco, and those hurting from the previous game might not even play in this one. 

Too many bettors jump on a team that has been covering on the ‘sandwich' game, laying way too much ‘wood'.  The team usually wins, but fails to cover.  Then the bettor jumps off of Tennessee the following week against Jacksonville because the bettor got burnt the week before in the sandwich game!

Line Movement— Sometimes line movement means nothing, and sometimes it means everything.  When I wager (my favorite recreation), I want the line to be bet dead or move ½ to one point with me.  Not a lot of movement, but slightly in agreement with me.  When a line moves more than one point, especially in the NFL, it can be a dangerous play.  This can denote injuries or other late information such as weather, etc.  But be careful, NFL teams are notorious for giving out misleading disinformation more so than any other sport.

Quite often with big line movement in the NFL, the final score falls in between the original line and the final line.  This opens the door for ‘middlers', those who bet early one way and late the other way on the same game.  I know several gamblers who make their living on this, and i have been successful myself at it.  They give up the 10% ‘juice' in hopes of winning both ways.  The most they can lose is 5% of their total bet.  They clean up if one play pushes or wins and the other play wins.

NCAA football can be different though. With so many lined college games nowadays, big line movement can be bet on.  For two years in a row in the early 1990's, the Ivy League football team that got the most line movement during the week won every single game those years.  Every week!  For games like these with fewer wagers on them, the line can easily move 3 to 5 points.  Sometimes it can move even more.  Beware of betting against this line movement, it generally is right. In the Colleges, stay away from wagering against consistent and massive line movement in one direction. 

2010 NFL and NCAA Football Against The Spread (ATS) Trends

Here is a look before the 2010 College Football season starts on lined teams and some basic ATS trends:

Air Force -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs with Rest, 1-8 ATS after scoring less than 10 points, 1-6 ATS as Conference Home Favorites greater than 14 points

Akron -- New Head Coach, finished '07 on a 1-4-1 ATS run, finished '06 on an 0-5 ATS run, finished '08 on a 2-5 ATS run, finished '09 on a 1-5 ATS run

Alabama -- 14-6 ATS as Road Favorites past five seasons, Road team is 16-2 ATS in Tennessee series, 0-5 ATS before playing Tennessee

UAB -- 4-0 ATS as Single Digit Favorites, 1-7 ATS before playing Southern Mississippi

Arizona -- 13-4 ATS at Home past two seasons, 1-4 ATS before playing USC

Arizona State -- 6-0 ATS after playing Oregon State, 2-10 ATS before playing Arizona

Arkansas -- 12-2 ATS off back-to-back Straight Up losses, 0-6 ATS before playing Alabama

Arkansas State -- 1-10 ATS as Road Favorites in seven years under Head Coach Steve Roberts

Army -- 3-24 ATS with Rest

Auburn -- 0-6 ATS versus below average teams

Ball State -- 16-4 ATS as Road Dogs recently

Baylor -- 8-1 ATS as Dogs greater than 12 points, Road team in Oklahoma series is 9-1 ATS

Boise State -- 23-10 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons

Boston College -- 1-4 ATS before playing Virginia Tech

Bowling Green -- 13-5 ATS as Road Dogs recently

BYU -- 6-0 ATS as Favs less than a TD

Buffalo -- New Head Coach, 0-5 ATS in last Home game

California -- 6-1 ATS in Game One, 7-1 ATS before Oregon

Central Florida -- 5-0 ATS after playing Southern Mississippi, 1-6 ATS with Rest, 0-4 ATS as greater than 20 point Favorites

Central Michigan -- New Head Coach, 17-5 ATS at Home past five seasons

Cincinnati -- New Head Coach, 1-10 ATS last game of season

Clemson -- 1-9 ATS as Double Digit Road Favorites

Colorado -- 9-1 ATS as Dogs of 16 or greater points, 1-6 ATS before playing Kansas

Colorado State -- 1-4 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs, 0-7 ATS before playing San Diego State

Connecticut -- 9-2 ATS as Home Dogs past five seasons

Duke -- 14-8 ATS as Road Dogs past four seasons

East Carolina -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS last Home game

Eastern Michigan -- 5-12 ATS as Home Dogs in past six seasons

Florida -- 11-0 ATS as Conference Dogs

Florida Atlantic -- Dog in LA-Monroe series is 6-0 ATS

Florida International -- 0-4 ATS after playing Arkansas State

Florida State -- New Head Coach, 6-0 ATS in Bowl Games

Fresno State -- 1-15 ATS off a SU and ATS loss

Georgia -- 13-1 ATS off back-to-back SU losses

Georgia Tech -- 5-0 ATS before playing North Carolina

Hawaii -- Road team is 5-0 ATS in Fresno State series, 2-11 ATS as Dogs with Rest

Houston -- 0-9 ATS on the Road off back-to-back SU wins

Idaho -- 5-0 ATS after playing New Mexico State

Illinois -- 8-1 ATS as DD Dogs off a SU win

Indiana -- 11-2 ATS in first Conference Road game

Iowa -- 6-12 ATS as Home Favorites past four seasons

Iowa State -- 1-7 ATS before playing Oklahoma

Kansas -- New Head Coach, 1-8 ATS after playing Kansas State

Kansas State -- 1-9 ATS as Road Favorites last six seasons, 9-2 ATS after playing Iowa State

Kent State -- 1-10 ATS after they score a Touchdown or less

Kentucky -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS before playing Georgia

UL-Lafayette -- Road team is 7-0 ATS in LA-Monroe series

UL-Monroe -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS before playing North Texas

LSU -- 11-25 ATS in Conference Play, 5-1 ATS after playing Auburn 

Louisiana Tech -- New Head Coach, 9-27 ATS as Road Dogs and 6-0 ATS as Home Dogs recently

Louisville -- New Head Coach, 1-5 ATS after playing West Virginia

Marshall -- New Head Coach, 4-1 ATS before playing East Carolina

Maryland -- Road team in Clemson series is 5-1 ATS

Memphis -- New Head Coach, 3-9 ATS as Home Favorites last five seasons

Miami -- 5-1 ATS after playing Virginia Tech

Miami OH -- Fav in Ohio U series is 6-0 ATS

Michigan -- Dog in Notre Dame series is 12-2 ATS

Michigan State -- 1-8 ATS after playing Purdue

MTSU -- 8-2 ATS as Road Favorites past five seasons

Minnesota -- 8-2 ATS as non-Conference Road Favs

Mississippi -- 5-0 ATS Home off back-to-back SU losses

Mississippi State -- 0-7 ATS as Home Favs

Missouri -- 39-3 ATS when they win Straight Up on the Road

Navy -- 16-6 ATS as Road Dogs last five seasons

Nebraska -- 7-0 ATS after playing Texas A&M

Nevada -- 5-0 ATS as DD Road Favs

New Mexico -- 2-12 ATS before playing UTEP

New Mexico State -- 1-7 ATS versus Idaho

North Carolina -- 1-6 ATS before playing Clemson

North Carolina State -- 1-7 ATS after playing Clemson

North Texas -- 0-6 ATS before playing MTSU

Northern Illinois -- 0-6 ATS after playing Western Michigan

Northwestern -- Finished last two seasons on 3-0 ATS and 4-0 ATS runs

Notre Dame -- New Head Coach, 1-15 ATS Home versus military teams

Ohio State -- 18-5 ATS as Road Favorites recently

Ohio U -- 5-0 ATS in last Home game

Oklahoma -- 0-4 ATS last three Bowl events

Oklahoma State -- Fav in Baylor series is 5-0 ATS

Oregon -- 18-9 ATS as Home Favorites last four seasons, 7-1 ATS with Rest

Oregon State -- 0-6 ATS in Conference openers

Penn State -- 7-1 ATS as Dogs versus SEC

Pittsburgh -- 5-1 ATS before playing Syracuse

Purdue -- 6-0 ATS before playing Illinois

Rice -- 21-3 ATS as Home Dogs in Conference Play

Rutgers -- 7-0 ATS with Revenge versus below average teams

San Diego State -- 1-7 ATS before playing Air Force

San Jose State -- New Head Coach, 10-2 ATS as Conference Road Favs

SMU -- 2-10 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play

South Carolina -- Home Team is 2-10 ATS in Tennessee series

South Florida -- New Head Coach, 4-0 ATS in last Road game

Southern Mississippi -- 0-7 ATS on weekdays

Stanford -- 16-4 ATS after playing USC

Syracuse -- Home team is 10-2 ATS in Rutgers series

TCU -- 20-6 ATS at Home last four seasons

Temple -- 23-10 ATS in Conference Play last six seasons, 12-4 ATS as Home Dogs

Tennessee -- New Head Coach, Road team is 10-2 ATS in South Carolina series

Texas -- 5-0 ATS after playing Oklahoma

Texas A&M -- 2-36 ATS when they lose on the Road

Texas Tech -- New Head Coach, 10-1 ATS before playing Texas

Toledo -- 2-9 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play

Troy -- 0-5 ATS before playing North Texas

Tulane -- 0-4 ATS before playing Tulsa

Tulsa -- 5-0 ATS after playing SMU

UCLA -- 14-2 ATS first game

UNLV -- 4-13 ATS as Home Favorites recently

USC -- New Head Coach, 7-1 ATS in Bowl Play

Utah -- Road team is 7-1 ATS in Air Force series

Utah State -- 7-1 ATS after playing Utah

UTEP -- 1-17 ATS as Favs less than 12 points

Vanderbilt -- New Head Coach, 5-1 ATS with Rest

Virginia -- New Head Coach, 5-0 ATS after playing North Carolina

Virginia Tech -- 2-11 ATS after playing Boston College

Wake Forest -- 2-9 ATS before playing Maryland

Washington -- 1-13 ATS as Conference Favs greater than a Field Goal

Washington State -- 2-11 ATS before playing Stanford

West Virginia -- 9-0 ATS as Conference Dogs of two or more points

Western Kentucky -- New Head Coach, 1-5 ATS at Home versus below average teams

Western Michigan -- 2-10 ATS as Home Dogs greater than a Field Goal

Wisconsin -- 7-1 ATS before playing Indiana

Wyoming -- 2-10 ATS after playing BYU

Here is a look before the 2010 NFL Football season starts on teams and some basic ATS trends:

Arizona -- 7-1 ATS as Favorites off a Double Digit ATS loss, 1-9 ATS as non-Division Favs of at least a touchdown, 0-5 ATS as Favs on Monday Night Football

Atlanta -- 8-0 ATS as Dogs off a Straight Up loss, 2-8 ATS off a SU win of at least 21 points, 0-12 ATS Home off of back-to-back Straight Up wins

Baltimore -- 17-0 ATS at Home after playing a non-Conference game, 7-1 ATS with Rest, 1-6 ATS off MNF

Buffalo -- New Head Coach, Visitor in Jets Series is 7-1 ATS, 3-22 ATS after playing Miami

Carolina -- 8-1 ATS after scoring at least 35 points, 1-7 ATS before playing Atlanta

Chicago -- 7-1 ATS on the Road off a SU Dog win, 1-8 ATS as MNF Favs, 0-4 ATS Home after playing Detroit

Cincinnati -- 11-1 ATS after playing Cleveland, 0-9 ATS after playing Pittsburgh

Cleveland -- 8-1 ATS versus AFC East, 12-2 ATS after playing Cincinnati, 2-9 ATS before playing Cincinnati

Dallas -- 16-3 ATS before playing Giants, 6-0 ATS with Rest, 12-113 ATS when they lose Straight Up

Denver -- 8-1 ATS on the Road after allowing 10 or less points, 4-16 ATS before playing San Diego

Detroit -- 5-0 ATS with Rest and Revenge, 1-8 ATS before they play Green Bay, 0-5 ATS after scoring at least 35 points

Green Bay -- 8-1 ATS before playing Minnesota, 1-6 ATS after playing Detroit

Houston -- 8-3 ATS as Home Dogs in three seasons under Head Coach Gary Kubiak, 1-4 ATS lifetime as Road Favorites

Indianapolis -- 11-2 ATS before playing Jacksonville, 11-3 ATS after playing Houston

Jacksonville -- 9-2 ATS before playing Indianapolis, 0-6 ATS after playing Houston

Kansas City -- 4-0 ATS on the Road after non-Conference play, 0-6 ATS as non-Conference Road Favorites, 6-17 ATS at Home

Miami -- 7-1 ATS on the Road versus the AFC West, 0-7 ATS as Home Favorites greater than a Touchdown

Minnesota -- 6-0 ATS before playing Detroit, 6-1 ATS with Rest, 1-9 ATS as Favs before playing Green Bay

New England -- 6-0 ATS as Dogs off a Double Digit SU loss, 2-8 ATS as Double Digit Favorites

New Orleans -- 6-1 ATS in second of back-to-back Road games, 2-16 ATS as Favorites greater than a Touchdown in Division Play

NY Giants -- 8-1 ATS after playing Washington, 6-1 ATS before playing the Eagles, 1-5 ATS as Dogs on MNF

NY Jets -- 7-1 ATS with Rest, 2-10 ATS after playing Miami

Oakland -- 0-11 ATS as Favorites, 1-6 ATS after playing San Diego, Road team in Kansas City series is 8-0 ATS

Philadelphia -- 7-0 ATS after playing Washington, 12-2 ATS after playing the Giants, 0-4 ATS at Home after allowing a TD or less

Pittsburgh -- 6-1 ATS as Dogs off a DD SU loss, 2-8 ATS before playing Cincinnati

St. Louis -- 6-1 ATS with Rest in Conference Play, 1-8 ATS after playing a Division game on the Road, 0-6 ATS after playing Arizona

San Diego -- 4-0 ATS as Home Dogs, 10-1 ATS after playing Denver, 2-8 ATS as Double Digit Favorites

San Francisco -- 1-6 ATS before playing Seattle, 1-6 ATS as Road Favs, Road team in Arizona series is 9-1 ATS

Seattle -- New Head Coach, 7-0 ATS before playing Arizona, 1-7 ATS on the Road after playing St. Louis

Tampa Bay -- 4-0-1 ATS as Favorites versus the NFC East, 3-12 ATS on the Road in non-Conference Play

Tennessee -- 6-0 ATS as Double Digit Favorites, 0-7 ATS after playing MNF

Washington -- New Head Coach, 8-1 ATS before playing Giants, 0-5 ATS as MNF Favs

Here's wishing all Football bettors a great 2010 Football Wagering Season!  Make sure to stop by the http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com site for tons of FREE Wagering Information, Contests, Lines, Scores, and more importantly, FREE Winners!

--Rich Green

Editor@FreeSportsLetter.com

http://www.FreeSportsLetter.com

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